ARE VENTURA COUNTY SHORT SALE REAL ESTATE VALUES BUBBLING?...OR IS THERE NO HOUSING BUBBLE, EVEN IN THE NATION’S HOTTEST MARKET?

By Chris B Johnson Realtor,
Throughout history real estate crashes have always followed a five year period of 150% or greater total appreciation.  The Los Angeles/Ventura County CBSA is leading this month’s Top 10, and has appreciated 48% over the past five years.  It’s an impressive run, but far from bubble territory.
The forecast for the Los Angeles/Ventura County CBSA shows the current median home price of $449,300 is still well below the peak of $551,500 in Q4 2006.  The five year forecast is based in part on 30-year mortgage interest rates rising slowly and reaching 6% in late 2019.
Over this period home prices are predicted to steadily appreciate, reaching $503,900 by Q4 2019, but still short of their 2006 peak.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said recently that the U.S. economy will need Fed stimulus, including low interest rates, for the foreseeable future.  Yellen’s statements alleviated fears that interest rates would begin to rise in mid-2015.
We at Home Value Forecast bring this up because there have been reports in the media with concerns about a “second housing bubble” looming on the horizon.   Recent opinions in the press have cited California markets as examples of overheated markets that are primed for a negative turn.  Looking at our Top 10 for this month, the majority are California communities.  We can see how people could be concerned, and if Yellen is successful containing interest rates it will only help support further home price appreciation.
In late July 2013 we wrote about this phenomenon in an update titled Current Rise in Home Prices is not Another National “Housing Bubble”.  Click the link to read how Home Value Forecast, using Collateral Analytics “Bubble Indicator” showed that many other factors in addition to price need to be present in order for a “bubble” to occur.  We updated our graph for the Los Angeles/Ventura County market with 8 more months of data:

If you want an accurate idea of what your home is worth Click Here:                    

You may now have enough EQUITY in your home to sell WITHOUT
having to be “short”. If you are thinking about a short sale I can help
you get an accurate value for your home and get back on your feet.

If you would like periodic updates on what is going on in Your Neighborhood
or the Ventura County Real Estate Market, Click on the Links!

Thanks for reading this,

Chris B Johnson.

Chris B Johnson is a Realtor with Prudential California Realty, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices .
Phone: 805-208-0823.
email cjohnson@prucalhomes.com.

Certified HAFA Specialist,                                                          Certified Short Sale Negotiator.  
Thousand Oaks Market Update                                                  Simi Valley Short Sale Trends  
Moorpark Market Update                                                          Moorpark Market Trends
Ventura County Mortgage Forgiveness                                       Ventura County Buyers vs Sellers